At Bitcoin block height #837188, with 20 days left until the fourth halving, Bitcoin has hit the $70,000 mark on this station. A subtle shift in market sentiment has occurred. Faced with the upcoming halving, will history repeat itself with another halving rally, or will it trigger a new narrative? Bulls and bears are engaged in fierce speculation.
Tide Capital has released its latest research report “Bitcoin Halving, 6 Big Ideas You Need to Know” on its official website, outlining the six most important clues and judgments driving Bitcoin’s price.
This article excerpted some of the content from the research report for public release. For the full version, please log in to Tide Capital to download the complete report.
Bitcoin: Approaching its fourth halving, expected to reduce annual selling pressure by $10 billion
Bitcoin will undergo its fourth halving on April 18, 2024, reducing the block reward from 6.25 bitcoins to 3.125 bitcoins, further diminishing bitcoin’s production and selling pressure.
Before the halving, Bitcoin’s annual output was approximately 330,000 bitcoins. Calculated at a price of $65,000 per bitcoin, this would introduce over $200 billion in selling pressure to the market. Following the halving, the annual selling pressure of Bitcoin will also halve, effectively reducing it by $100 billion, thereby alleviating the selling pressure.
Bitcoin: Historically, following each of the three halvings, there has been a significant increase in price in the subsequent year
A common trend among halvings is a significant price increase in the year following the event. With less than 30 days remaining until the fourth halving, the market is beginning to factor in the impact of this event. There is a high probability that Bitcoin will continue to experience volatile upward movements.
Bitcoin: ETFs receiving accelerated fund inflows, fueling continued upward momentum
On January 10th, BTC spot ETFs were approved, leading to billions of dollars in off-exchange fund inflows thereafter, further driving the continuous upward trend of Bitcoin.
Taking cues from the gold ETF, the introduction of the first gold ETF led to a decade-long bull run for gold, with gains exceeding 400%. Currently, the market value of gold is $14.5 trillion, while Bitcoin’s market value is only $1.3 trillion, indicating that Bitcoin still has ten times the potential compared to gold. Moreover, the launch of Bitcoin ETFs is more favored than that of gold ETFs in their respective periods, with the speed of fund inflows significantly leading the way.
Inscriptions: Bitcoin’s native innovation, poised to trigger a third wave of enthusiasm
In January 2023, Bitcoin developer Casey Rodarmor introduced the Ordinals protocol, allowing users to embed data into the Bitcoin blockchain, thus creating NFTs and token-like assets on Bitcoin, ushering in a new era of innovation within the Bitcoin ecosystem. Since its launch, Ordinals has accumulated over 60 million total inscriptions.
Inscriptions represent a native innovation within the Bitcoin ecosystem, attracting more users and developers to the Bitcoin community. Various new applications and gameplay mechanics continue to emerge. When Bitcoin undergoes its next halving, market attention will once again shift towards the Bitcoin ecosystem, and inscriptions are poised to kick off a third wave of enthusiasm.
Runes: The Runes protocol is expected to go live during the halving, and Rune Stone is poised to become a core asset
Rune Stone, introduced by Leonidas, the founder of the Ord.io browser, completed its initial distribution by airdropping NFTs to 112,383 Bitcoin addresses. Its current market value exceeds $300 million. Rune Stone has become the representative asset of the Runes Protocol. More and more projects are starting to airdrop tokens to users holding Rune Stones. Rune Stone possesses significant potential for imagination, and its future applications and gameplay are highly anticipated.
Additionally, after the launch of the Runes Protocol, users holding Rune Stones will be able to convert them into fungible tokens. Rune Stone embodies a narrative of “Runes protocol” + “Airdrop asset” + “Coin issuance expectation” and is poised to become a core asset.
Meme: Blue-chip NFT mfers launched its token, soaring from 0 to a $200 million market cap in just 12 hours
On March 30th, the founder of the blue-chip NFT project mfers, sartoshi, launched the token mfercoin. In the whitepaper, mfercoin was described as a meme coin with no intrinsic value, profit expectations, or prescribed utility. 80% of the tokens were injected into the liquidity pool, while the remaining 20% were airdropped to the mfers community.
The NFT project mfers was launched in 2021, sparking a wave of PFP frenzy in the crypto community and establishing itself as a well-known NFT project. Following the launch of mfercoin, with the spontaneous support and dissemination from the community, it achieved a market cap of $200 million within 12 hours. Regarding the future of mfercoin, as stated by the mfers community, “1$mfer = 1$mfer”.
The complete research report spans 33 pages and covers various topics including Meme, AI, Solana, Ethereum, and more. Please log in to Tide Capital to download the full version of the research report.
Tide Capital
Tide Capital is a research-driven digital asset investment and trading firm. We study macro and fundamentals to capture beta and alpha opportunities from crypto waves to financial tides. Driven by value, we aim to invest in early-stage projects with significant growth potential. Concurrently, we assess market cycles to inform our investment decisions, trading in the public market to achieve returns.
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Disclaimer
The information and data presented in this article are obtained from public sources, and Tide Capital makes no guarantees regarding their accuracy and completeness. Any predictions, speculations, or opinions contained in this article are statements about future events and may differ significantly from actual results due to limitations in data timeliness, assumption validity, uncertainty factors, and unforeseeable risks. Any advice and opinions in this article are for reference purposes only and do not constitute recommendations to buy or sell any digital assets. They do not constitute investment advice or solicitations. The strategies that Tide Capital may adopt may be the same, different, or unrelated to those inferred by readers based on this article. Investors should carefully consider any decisions and seek appropriate legal and financial advice when necessary. Any misunderstanding or misuse of the content in this article does not constitute the responsibility of the author or the publishing institution.